Abstract
In the current study, three optimistic (SSP1-2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) scenarios were used to examine changes in precipitation based on the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the Gorganrood watershed over two time periods: the near future (2021–2060) and the far future (2061–2100). To do this, the rainfall of 27 meteorological stations was studied. Using the RClimdex software in the R software, precipitation extreme indicators (11 indicators) were determined for different scenarios and periods, and Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s estimator tests were then used to detect the trend. The results showed that in the near future under SSP1-2.6, the indicators of consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) have a significant downward and upward trend, respectively. While in the SSP5-8.5, the indicators of maximum five-day rainfall (RX1day), CDD, number of very wet days (R95p) and total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) have a significant downward trend in some stations. Similarly, in the far future, in the SSP5-8.5, the trend of rainfall indicators is insignificant compared to the near future, but still a significant decreasing trend can be seen in R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT. Z score index (ZI) values in both future periods showed that drought peaks occurred in the optimistic scenario and drought peaks occurred in the pessimistic scenario, and almost normal conditions prevailed in the intermediate scenario. The results can be effective in policies to deal with global warming and climate change.
Graphical Abstract
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
The data will be available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
References
Akhtari R, Morid S, Mahdian MH, Smakhtin V (2009) Assessment of Areal Interpolation Methods for Spatial Analysis of SPI and EDI Drought Indices. J Clim 29:135–145. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1691
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290
Ali S, Basit A, Umair M, Makanda TA, Shaik MR, Ibrahim M, Ni J (2024) The role of Climate Change and its sensitivity on long-term standardized precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Vegetation and Drought changing trends over East Asia. Plants 13:399. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13030399
Arias PA, Rivera JA, Sörensson AA, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Philip S, Otto FE (2024) Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America. Clim Change 177:6. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03664-4
Azari M, Saghafian B, Moradi HR, Faramarzi M (2017) Effectiveness of Soil and Water Conservation Practices under Climate Change in the Gorganroud Basin, Iran. CLEAN–Soil Air Water 45(8):1700288. https://doi.org/10.1002/clen.201700288
Badsha MAH, Kafi MAH, Islam MZ, Islam T (2016) Analysis of the Trends in Temperature and Precipitation Variables for Sylhet City of Bangladesh Using Rclimdex Toolkit. In: ICCESD: p.7
Bigi V, Pezzoli A, Rosso M (2018) Past and future precipitation trend analysis for the city of Niamey (Niger): an overview. Climate 6(3):73. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030073
Bock L, Lauer A, Schlund M et al (2020) Quantifying Progress Across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool. J Geophys Res Atmos 125(21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032321. e2019JD032321
Brown PJ, Bradley RS, Keimig FT (2010) Changes in extreme climate indices for the Northeastern United States, 1870–2005. J Clim 23(24):6555–6572. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3363.1
CLIMDEX (2020) Indices | Climdex. In: UNSW Sydney
Dashkhuu D, Kim JP, Chun JA, Lee WS (2015) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes over Mongolia. Weather Clim Extrem 8:26–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.11.003
DeGaetano AT (1996) Recent trends in maximum and minimum temperature threshold exceedances in the northeastern United States. J Clim 9(7):1646–1660. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1646:RTIMAM>2.0.CO;2
Derakhshandeh A, Khoorani A, Rezazadeh M (2023) Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation over Iran using CORDEX regional climate models until 2100. J Earth Syst Sci 133(1):7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02212-z
Dogan S, Berktay A, Singh VP (2012) Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey. J Hydrol 470:255–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.003
Edwards DC, Mckee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. J Atm Sci 63:1–30
Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl GA et al (2016) Overview of the coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci Model Dev 9(5):1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
Fadaeifard M, Danesh-Yazd M (2022) Lessons Learned from Flood Management in Iran. In: E3S Web of Conferences. 346: p.02012. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234602012
Fanni Z, Khalilollahi HA, Sajjadi J, Falsoleiman M (2016) Analysis of the causes and consequences of Drought in South Khorasan Province and Birjand. J Spat Plann 20(4):175–200
Frederiksen JS, Osbrough SL (2022) Tip** points and changes in Australian climate and extremes. Climate 10(5):73. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050073
Ghanim AAJ, Anjum MN, Rasool G et al (2023) Assessing spatiotemporal trends of total and extreme precipitation in a subtropical highland region: a climate perspective. PLoS ONE 18(8):e0289570. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289570
Gupta V, Singh V, Jain MK (2020) Assessment of precipitation extremes in India during the 21st century under SSP1-1.9 mitigation scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs. J Hydrol (Amst) 590:125422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125422
Habibi M, Babaeian I, Schöner W (2021) Changing causes of drought in the Urmia lake basin—increasing influence of evaporation and disappearing snow cover. Water (Switzerland) 13(22):3273. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223273
Hosseini SM, Roosta K, Zamanipour A, Teymouri M (2018) Using structural equation modeling approach to investigate farmers’ perception consequences of drought (case study: Birjand Township, Iran). Appl Ecol Environ Res 16(1). https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1601_521534
Hosseini A, Ghavidel Y, Mohammad Khorshiddoust A, Farajzadeh M (2021) Spatio-temporal analysis of dry and wet periods in Iran by using global precipitation Climatology Center-Drought Index (GPCC-DI). Theor Appl Climatol 143:1035–1045. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03463-2
Imani S, Farokhnia A, Morid S, Roozbahani R (2021) Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature and precipitation trends in Tashk-Bakhtegan Watershed. Amirkabir J Civil Eng 52(11):2931–2944
IPCC (2021) IPCC: Summary for policymakers. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001
Issaharou-Matchi I, Rabiou H, Mahamane M et al (2019) Rural communities’ perceptions of Climate Change and its impacts on their livelihood in Southeastern Niger. Int J Environ Clim Change 9:789–800. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2019/v9i1230157
Jones PD, Hulme M (1996) Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: methods and illustrations. Int J Climatology 16:361–377. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199604)16:4<361::AID-JOC53>3.0.CO;2-F
Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A (1999) CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for Climate extremes - Workshop summary. Weather and climate extremes: changes, variations and a perspective from the insurance industry. 3–7. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_2
Kendall MG (1975) Kendall rank correlation methods. Griffin, London
Komuscu AU (1999) Using the SPI to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of drought in Turkey. Drought Netw News 49:. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/49
Lornezhad E, Ebrahimi H, Rabieifar HR (2023) Analysis of precipitation and drought trends by a modified Mann-Kendall method: a case study of Lorestan province, Iran. Water Supply 23(4):1557–1570. https://doi.org/10.2166/WS.2023.068
Mann HB Mann Nonparametric test against trend. Econometrica 13 245259Milly PCD, Dunne KA (1945) (2002) Macro scale water fluxes 2, water and energy supply control of their enter-annual variability. Water Resour. Re. 38: 241–249
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology 17(22):179–183
Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T et al (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climatic change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(9):1383–1394. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383
Miri M, Raziei T, Zand M, Kousari MR (2023) Synoptic aspects of two flash flood-inducing heavy rainfalls in southern Iran during 2019–2020. Nat Hazards 115(3):2655–2672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05658-4
Modarres R, Sarhadi A, Burn DH (2016) Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran. Glob Planet Change 144:67–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.008
Mudelsee M (2019) Trend analysis of climate time series: a review of methods. Earth Sci Rev 190:310–322
Mufti F, Ismail N, Umar M (2017) Trend analysis of extream rainfall from 1982–2013 and projection from 2014–2050 in banda aceh and meulaboh. Jurnal Nat 17:122–127. https://doi.org/10.24815/jn.v17i2.7012
Nejadrekabi M, Eslamian S, Zareian MJ (2022) Spatial statistics techniques for SPEI and NDVI drought indices: a case study of Khuzestan Province. Int J Environ Sci Technol 19:6573–6594. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03852-8
Nikouei H, Azari M, Dastorani MT (2022) The effect of climate change on the Fariman Dam watershed health using VOR model. Water Soil Manage Modelling 3:107–121. https://doi.org/10.22098/mmws.2022.11685.1156
Noor NM, Noor NM, Alias R, Ideris MM (2020) Drought Indices Monitoring using SPI and Z Index Score for Gua Musang, Kelantan. In: IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. 932: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/932/1/012050
Patel NR, Chopra P, Dadhwal VK (2007) Analyzing spatial patterns of meteorological drought using standardized precipitation index. J Meteorol App 14:329–336. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.33
Philip SY, Kew SF, Hauser M et al (2018) Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture. Clim Dyn 50:2587–2601. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3759-x
Qian B, Gregorich EG, Gameda S et al (2011) Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in Canada. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015012
Rathjens H, Bieger K, Srinivasan R, Arnold JG (2016) CMhyd User Manual. Doc. Prep. Simulated Clim. Change Data Hydrol. Impact Study. 1413
Roshani A, Hamidi M (2022) Forecasting the effects of climate change scenarios on temperature & precipitation based on CMIP6 models (Case study: Sari station) [In Persian]. Water Irrig Manage 11:781–795. https://doi.org/10.22059/JWIM.2022.330603.920
Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T et al (2017) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmos Res 198:97–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.011
Sam MG, Nwaogazie IL, Ikebude C (2022) Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope methods for Rainfall IDF modeling. Int J Environ Clim Change 12:44–60. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2022/v12i230628
Savari M, Damaneh HE, Damaneh HE (2023) Effective factors to increase rural households’ resilience under drought conditions in Iran. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 90:103644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103644
Sein KK, Chidthaisong A, Oo KL (2018) Observed trends and changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over Myanmar. Atmos (Basel) 9(12):477. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120477
Shi W, Wen SM, Zhang J et al (2023) Extreme weather as a window: exploring the seek and supply of climate change information during meteorological disasters in China. Adv Clim Change Res 14:615–623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.06.004
Sillmann J, Roeckner E (2008) Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Clim Change 86:83–104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9308-6
Singh A, Gogoi A, Saikia P et al (2021) Integrated use of inverse and biotic ligand modelling for lake water quality resilience estimation: a case of Ramsar Wetland, (Deepor Beel), Assam, India. Environ Res 200:111397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111397
Suroso, Ghifari IA, Santoso PB (2021) Detection of Trend Behaviour of Extreme Rainfall over Java Using Mann-Kendall. In: IOP Conference Series: Earth Environ. Sci. 698: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755?1315/698/1/012010
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2017) An enhanced effective reconnaissance drought index for the characterisation of agricultural drought. Environ Processes 4:137–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0219-x
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2020) Implementing crop evapotranspiration in RDI for farm-level drought evaluation and adaptation under climate change conditions. Water Resour Manage 34:4329–4343. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02593-6
Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 25:1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9105-4
Uwimbabazi J, **g Y, Iyakaremye V et al (2022) Observed changes in Meteorological Drought events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa. Sustain (Switzerland) 14:1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031519
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim 23(7):1696–1718
Walsh JE, Ballinger TJ, Euskirchen ES et al (2020) Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: a review. Earth Sci Rev 209:103324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103324
WMO (2023) World Meteorological Organization Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. Bulletin 72
Wu Y, Zhang L, Zhang Z, Ling J, Yang S, Si J, Chen W (2024) Influence of solar activity and large-scale climate phenomena on extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 38:211–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02573-3
Wubneh MA, Alemu MG, Fekadie FT et al (2023) Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring and trend analysis for selected gauged watersheds in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia: under future climate change impact scenario. Sci Afr 20:e01738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01738
Xu F, Qu Y, Bento VA, Song H, Qiu J, Qi J, Wang Q (2024) Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7:1–32. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00578-5
Yan W, He Y, Cai Y et al (2021) Relationship between extreme climate indices and spatiotemporal changes of vegetation on Yunnan Plateau from 1982 to 2019. Glob Ecol Conserv 31:e01813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01813
Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0). Clim Res Branch Environ Can 22:13–14
Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S et al (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181
Zhang X, Feng Y, Chan R (2018) Introduction to RClimDex v1.9. Climate Research Division Environment Canada
Funding
This work is based upon research funded by the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) under project No. 4006075.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the conception and design of the study. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by M Tavosi, M Vafakhah, H Shekohideh, SHR Sadeghi, V Moosavi, Z Zheng and Q Yang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by M Tavosi and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of Interest
Not applicable.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Tavosi, M., Vafakhah, M., Shekohideh, H. et al. Rainfall Extreme Indicators Trend and Meteorological Drought Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios. Water Resour Manage (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-024-03871-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-024-03871-3