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Occurrence Probability of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: Assessment from Data on Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Lunar Rocks

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Abstract

We revisited assessments of the occurrence probability distribution of large events in solar energetic particles (SEP), based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar rocks. We present a combined cumulative occurrence probability distribution of SEP events based on three timescales: directly measured SEP fluences for the past 60 years; estimates based on the terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C for the multi-millennial (Holocene) timescale; and cosmogenic radionuclides measured in lunar rocks on a timescale of up to 1 Myr. These three timescales yield a consistent distribution. The data suggest a strong roll-over of the occurrence probability, so that SEP events with a proton fluence with energy > 30 MeV greater than 1011 (protons cm−2 yr−1) are not expected on a Myr timescale.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Peggy Shea and Don Smart for data on SEP fluences. GA acknowledges partial support from Program No. 22 of the Presidium RAS and from the Academy of Finland. We thank the International Space Studies Institute in Bern, Switzerland, for support of the team “Extreme Solar Flares as Drivers of Space Weather”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute, 194021, St. Petersburg, Russia

    G. A. Kovaltsov

  2. Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (Oulu Unit), University of Oulu, 90014, Oulu, Finland

    I. G. Usoskin

  3. Department of Physics, University of Oulu, 90014, Oulu, Finland

    I. G. Usoskin

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  1. G. A. Kovaltsov
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Correspondence to I. G. Usoskin.

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Kovaltsov, G.A., Usoskin, I.G. Occurrence Probability of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: Assessment from Data on Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Lunar Rocks. Sol Phys 289, 211–220 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-013-0333-5

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