Abstract
Coastal regions are often exposed to marine floods, usually generated by storm surge events. Each year, they are responsible for major losses in terms of lives and economic infrastructures. Numerical models are crucial to understand, assess, and forecast these consequences, especially in the absence of direct observations of these hazardous events. The present study evaluates the impact of the two storms of January 7, 2014, and February 28, 2017, on the coast of El Jadida (Morocco), using Iber software on a high-resolution topo-bathymetric digital elevation model with wind, wave and tide as forcing parameters. It also predicts the effect of the same storms under future sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 under the RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The simulations reveal a total flood area (TFA) of 1.1 and 1.3 km2 for the storms of 2014 and 2017, respectively. The maximum run-up was equal to 6.4 m, as a result of the 2017 storm. The impact of storms similar to the 2017 event will be more dangerous for the coast of El Jadida under future sea level rise. For the RCP 2.6 (optimistic scenario), the TFA will reach 1.7 km2 associated with a run-up of 7.6 m in 2100. For the same period, the TFA and run-up under the RCP 8.5 scenario (pessimistic) are equal to 2 km2 and 7.7 m, respectively. The obtained flood hazard maps show that several economic infrastructures, such as commercial parks, hotels and coffee shops are located in areas at risk of coastal inundation. These results underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate future flooding risks along the coast of El Jadida.
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig1_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig2_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig3_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig4_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig5_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig6_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig7_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig8_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig9_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11069-024-06781-0/MediaObjects/11069_2024_6781_Fig10_HTML.png)
References
Aangri A, Hakkou M, Krien Y et al (2024) Risk Assessment of Marine flooding along the Agadir and Taghazout coasts (Moroccan Atlantic). 40:179–192. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-23-00033.1. https://doi.org/102112/JCOASTRES-D-23-000331
Aitali R, Snoussi M, Kasmi S (2020) Coastal development and risks of flooding in Morocco: the cases of Tahaddart and Saidia coasts. J Afr Earth Sci 164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2020.103771
Al-Mutairi N, Alsahli M, El-Gammal M et al (2021) Environmental and economic impacts of rising sea levels: a case study in Kuwait’s coastal zone. Ocean Coast Manag J 205:105–572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105572
Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ et al (2021) A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtop**. Nat Commun 12:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9
Areu-Rangel OS, Cea L, Bonasia R, Espinosa-Echavarria VJ (2019) Impact of urban growth and changes in land use on river flood hazard in Villahermosa, Tabasco (Mexico). Water (Switzerland) 11:1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020304
Belkhayat Z, Aoula REL, Mhammdi N (2017) Effects of the winter storms of 2017 on the Atlantic coast of Rabat: A preliminary evaluation Effets des tempêtes hivernales de 2017 sur la côte Atlantique de Rabat: Evaluation préliminaire. Bull l’Institut Sci Rabat, Sect Sci la Terre 39:135–139
Bermúdez M, Zischg AP (2018) Sensitivity of flood loss estimates to building representation and flow depth attribution methods in micro-scale flood modelling. Nat Hazards 92:1633–1648. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3270-7
Bermúdez M, Neal JC, Bates PD et al (2017) Quantifying local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a nested regional-local flood modeling system. Water Resour Res 53:2770–2785. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019903
Bhaskaran PK, Nayak S, Bonthu SR et al (2013) Performance and validation of a coupled parallel ADCIRC-SWAN model for THANE cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. Environ Fluid Mech 13:601–623. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10652-013-9284-5
Bladé E, Cea L, Corestein G et al (2014a) Revista Internacional De Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo Y Diseño en Ingeniería Iber: herramienta de simulación numérica del flujo en ríos. Rev Int Mètodos Numèricos para Cálculo Y Diseño en Ing 30:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2012.07.004
Bladé E, Cea L, Corestein G et al (2014b) Hydraulic Reference Manual - Iber v1.0. 1–52
Bourhili A, El Khalidi K, Minoubi A et al (2023) Periodical morphodynamic changes of sand movements at El Jadida Beach. Ecol Eng Environ Technol 24:15–26. https://doi.org/10.12912/27197050/162253
Carapuço MM, Taborda R, Silveira TM et al (2016) Coastal geoindicators: towards the establishment of a common framework for sandy coastal environments. Earth Sci Rev 154:183–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.01.002
Cea L, Bladé E (2015) A simple and efficient unstructured finite volume scheme for solving the shallow water equations in overland flow applications. Water Resour Res 51:5464–5486. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016547
Cea L, French JR (2012) Bathymetric error estimation for the calibration and validation of estuarine hydrodynamic models. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 100:124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.01.004
Cea L, Bermúdez M, Puertas J et al (2016) IberWQ: new simulation tool for 2D water quality modelling in rivers and shallow estuaries. J Hydroinformatics 18:816–830. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2016.235
CERD (2014) Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques. http://www.afit.edu/cmsr/
Chaibi M (2003) Dynamique sédimentaire et morphogenèse actuelle du littoral d’El Jadida (Maroc). UNIVERSITE AIX-MARSEILLE I
Chaibi M, Malek HA, Charif A, Ougougdal MA (2013) Étude De l ’ évolution Du Littoral De La baie d ’ El Jadida (Maroc) par photo- interprétation Résumé. Afrique Sci 9:23–34
Chaumillon E, Bertin X, Fortunato AB et al (2017) Storm-induced marine flooding: lessons from a multidisciplinary approach. Earth Sci Rev 165:151–184
Church Ja, Clark PU, Gregory JM et al (2013a) Sea-level rise by 2100. Science 342:1445–1447
Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A et al (2013b) Sea Level Change. Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 493–499
Directorate of National Meteorology MINISTERE DE, L’EQUIPEMENT ET DE L’EAU | DIRECTION GENERALE DE LA METEOROLOGIE. https://www.marocmeteo.ma/
El Messaoudi B, Ait Laâmel M, El Hou M, Bouksim H (2016) Situations des fortes houles sur les côtes atlantiques marocaines. Actes Sess Plénière Académie Hassan II Des Sci Tech Rabat 24–25, 79–99 février 2015
Elahi MWE, Wang XH, Salcedo-Castro J, Ritchie EA (2023) Influence of Wave–Current Interaction on a Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge Event in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta: part 1—Effects on Water Level. J Mar Sci Eng 11:328. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020328
García-Alén G, González-Cao J, Fernández-Nóvoa D et al (2022) Analysis of two sources of variability of basin outflow hydrographs computed with the 2D shallow water model Iber: Digital Terrain Model and unstructured mesh size. J Hydrol 612:128–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128182
Gomes MP, Santos L, Pinho JL, Do Carmo JSA (2018) Hazard Assessment of Storm Events for the Portuguese Northern Coast. Geosciences 8:178. https://doi.org/10.3390/GEOSCIENCES8050178
González-Cao J, Fernández-Nóvoa D, García-Feal O et al (2022) The Rivillas flood of 5–6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: an approach based on iber + modelling. J Hydrol 610:127–883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883
Hakkou M, Maanan M, Belrhaba T et al (2018) Multi-decadal assessment of shoreline changes using geospatial tools and automatic computation in Kenitra coast, Morocco. Ocean Coast Manag 163:232–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.07.003
Hamdi Y, Nadal-Caraballo NC, Kanney J et al (2023) Statistical and hydrodynamic numerical modeling to quantify storm surge hazard: comparison of approaches applied to U.S. North Atlantic coast. Weather Clim Extrem 42:100628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100628
Harley MD, Valentini A, Armaroli C et al (2016) Can an early-warning system help minimize the impacts of coastal storms? A case study of the 2012 Halloween storm, northern Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:209–222. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-209-2016
HCP (2014) RGPH 2014 | Téléchargements | Site institutionnel du Haut-Commissariat au Plan du Royaume du Maroc. In: Rgph. https://www.hcp.ma/downloads/RGPH-2014_t17441.html. Accessed 10 Oct 2023
Hinkel J, Jaeger C, Nicholls RJ et al (2015) Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management. Nat Clim Chang 5:188–190. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2505
Hoggart SPG, Hanley ME, Parker DJ et al (2014) The consequences of doing nothing: the effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones. Coast Eng 87:169–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.001
Holland GJ, Belanger JI, Fritz A (2010) A revised model for radial profiles of hurricane winds. Mon Weather Rev 138:4393–4401. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3317.1
IPCC (2001) IPCC - Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability - CH.6 Coastal. Zones and Marine Ecosystems
IPCC (2007) Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques. l’atténuation du changement climatique
IPCC (2014) Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report 16 th Annual Symposium of the French Renewable Energy Association
Khalfaoui O, Dezileau L, Mhammdi N et al (2023) Storm surge and tsunami deposits along the Moroccan coasts: state of the art and future perspectives. Nat Hazards 117:2113–2137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05940-z
Khalfaoui O, Joudar I, Chahid NE et al (2024) The Safi boulders (Morocco): evidence of past extreme wave events. Mar Geol 470:107265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2024.107265
Khan AS, Ramachandran A, Usha N et al (2012) Predicted impact of the sea-level rise at VellareColeroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu Coast in India: mainstreaming adaptation as a coastal zone management option. Ocean Coast Manag J 69:327–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.08.005
Krien Y, Dudon B, Roger J, Zahibo N (2015) Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1711–1720. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1711-2015
Kyprioti AP, Irwin C, Taflanidis AA et al (2023) Spatio-temporal storm surge emulation using Gaussian process techniques. Coast Eng 180:104–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COASTALENG.2022.104231
Lakshmi DD, Murty PLN, Bhaskaran PK et al (2017) Performance of WRF-ARW winds on computed storm surge using hydodynamic model for Phailin and Hudhud cyclones. Ocean Eng 131:135–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.01.005
Letortu P, Stéphane C, Olivier C (2012) Les Submersions Marines En Manche Orientale: Approche Inductive Et Naturaliste Pour La Caractérisation Des Facteurs Responsables Des Inondations Par La Mer. climatologie 9:31–57. https://doi.org/10.4267/climatologie.165
Liang S, Hu W, Liu J et al (2023) Map** mangrove sustainability in the face of sea level rise and land use: a case study on Leizhou Peninsula, China. J Environ Manage 325:116–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116554
Liu WC, Huang WC (2023) Hindcasting and predicting surge heights and waves on the Taiwan coast using a hybrid typhoon wind and tide-surge-wave coupled model. Ocean Eng 276:114–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEANENG.2023.114208
Liu Q, Ruan C, Zhong S et al (2018) Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 68:20–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.01.016
Long ZY, Gao L (2023) Estimating the combined risks of sea level rise and storm surges using a numerical model: application to Macao. J Clean Prod 407. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2023.137155
Makris CV, Tolika K, Baltikas VN et al (2023) The impact of climate change on the storm surges of the Mediterranean Sea: Coastal sea level responses to deep depression atmospheric systems. Ocean Model 181:102–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEMOD.2022.102149
Martins M, Gomes A, Pinto Santos P, Santos P (2018) Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial (FOSS4G) Conference proceedings hydraulic modeling for the assessment of flood hazard using the iber software in the Amarante urban center. Recommended Cit Hydraulic Model Assess Flood Hazard Using Iber Softw Amarante Urban Cent 18. https://doi.org/10.7275/xzfg-pc52
Masselink G (2014) Coastal Environments and Global Change. 438
Mcevoy S, Haasnoot M, Biesbroek R (2021) How are European countries planning for sea level rise? Ocean Coast Manag J 203:105–512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105512
Mellas S (2013) Evaluation du risque tsunamique sur le littoral atlantique marocain
Mercier D, Chadenas C (2012) La tempête Xynthia et la cartographie des « zones noires » sur le littoral français: analyse critique à. Norois Environ aménagement société 222:45–60 (Vendée). https://doi.org/10.4000/norois.3895. partir de l’exemple de La Faute-sur-Mer
METL (2014) Impacts de la houle exceptionnelle du 06–07 Janvier 2014 sur les infrastructures portuaires
Mhammdi N, Medina F, Belkhayat Z et al (2020) Marine storms along the Moroccan Atlantic coast: an underrated natural hazard? J Afr Earth Sci 163:103–730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2019.103730
Mignot E, Paquier A, Haider S (2006) Modeling floods in a dense urban area using 2D shallow water equations. J Hydrol 327:186–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.026
Minoubi A, Khalidi K, El, Chaibi M (2013) Variation morphosédimentaire saisonnière et impact de la tempête de Janvier 2009 sur la côte de Safi. Maroc Sci 5:23–23
Minoubi A, Elkhalidi K, Chaibi M (2018) Impact of port works on the evolution of the coastline of the bay of Safi (Atlantic coast-Morocco). Moroccan Rev Geomorphol 18–35
MTAESS (2023) Chiffres Clés – Ministère du Tourisme, de l’Artisanat et de l’Economie Sociale et Solidaire. https://mtaess.gov.ma/fr/tourisme/chiffres-cles/. Accessed 25 Apr 2024
Nguyen TTX, Bonetti J, Rogers K, Woodroffe CD (2016) Indicator-based assessment of climate-change impacts on coasts: a review of concepts, methodological approaches and vulnerability indices. Ocean Coast Manag 123:18–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.022
Nicholls RJ (2004) Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:69–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007
Nicholls RJ (2010) Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise
Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett V et al (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp 315–356
Omira R, Baptista MA, Leone F et al (2013) Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco) against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1779–1794. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1779-2013
Pachev B, Arora P, del-Castillo-Negrete C et al (2023) A framework for flexible peak storm surge prediction. Coast Eng 186:104406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2023.104406
Perrin E (2021) Méta-modélisation et analyse de sensibilité pour les modèles avec sortie spatiale. Application aux modèles de submersion marine. L’Ecole des Mines de Saint Etienne
Pilkey OH, Young RS, Riggs SR et al (1993) The concept of shoreface profile of equilibrium: a critical review. J Coast Res 9:255–278
Puertos del Estado Prediccion de oleaje, nivel del mar; Boyas y mareografos | puertos.es. https://www.puertos.es/en-us/oceanografia/Pages/portus.aspx
SDAU – El Jadida (2004) SDAU – El-Jadida: Sch´ema Directeur de l’Am´enagement Urbain de la ville d’El-Jadida. http://www.sdaulittoraleljadida.com/
SHOM (French Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service) SHOM (French Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service). https://maree.shom.fr/harbor/MAZAGAN
Small C, Nicholls RJ (2003) A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J Coast Res 19:584–599. https://doi.org/10.2307/4299200
Sweet WV, Kopp RE, Weaver CP et al (2022) Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. In: NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD. p 111
Syvitski JPM, Vörösmarty CJ, Kettner AJ, Green P (2005) Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean. Science 308:376–380. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1109454
Tadibaght A, Agharroud K, Bounab A et al (2022) Quantitative risk assessment in El-Jadida (Northern Atlantic Coast of Morocco) for a tsunami scenario equivalent to that of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. Environ Earth Sci 81:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10277-0
Uber M, Nord G, Legout C, Cea L (2021) How do modeling choices and erosion zone locations impact the representation of connectivity and the dynamics of suspended sediments in a multi-source soil erosion model? Earth Surf Dyn 9:123–144. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-123-2021
Vousdoukas MI, Mentaschi L, Voukouvalas E et al (2018) Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard. Nat Commun 9:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w
Wolf J (2009) Coastal flooding: impacts of coupled wave-surge-tide models. Nat Hazards 49:241–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9316-5
** a deep learning-based storm surge forecasting model. Ocean Model 182:102–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.OCEMOD.2023.102179
Zachry BC, Booth WJ, Rhome JR, Sharon TM (2015) A national view of storm surge risk and inundation. Weather Clim Soc 7:109–117. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00049.1
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable suggestions and support of professor Omira Rachid from Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal, throughout this research. They also express their gratitude to the editor and the four anonymous reviewers for their scientific suggestions and constructive comments.
Funding
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Joudar, I., Bouchkara, M., Chahid, N.E. et al. Storm-induced marine flooding on Morocco’s Atlantic Coast — case of El Jadida Bay. Nat Hazards (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06781-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06781-0