Abstract
Precipitation is the most important climate element in supplying Iran’s water resources. Its regular temporal distribution will guarantee the sustainability of water resources. Estimating precipitation behavior in near future will improve managing water resources. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine precipitation regulation in near future (2021–2040). To this end, five models–namely GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-ESM2, and UKESM1-0-LL–along with the data of 95 synoptic stations were used. Upon estimating precipitation by the use of these models, the estimated data were ensemble using a multi-model ensemble model, which was based on the correlation-weighted average. Assessing the estimation error indicated the reduction of error rate in the ensemble data. Precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration period (PCP), and precipitation concentration degree (PCD) were used to study precipitation regulation in near future. The results suggested more precipitation regulation in the north, northwest, and northeast of Iran, while more precipitation concentration was observed in southern parts of Iran. The precipitation concentration in southern parts of Iran indicates lower precipitation regulation in this area.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) to support this article (n. 4003254). The data on daily precipitation were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), which has been described in detail under the heading “data” in this manuscript. The data are available in case of a reasonable request by conducting the corresponding author.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by [SA], [ARK] and [MK]. The first draft of the manuscript was written by [MK] and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Ashrafi, S., Karbalaee, A.R. & Kamangar, M. Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios. Nat Hazards 120, 4775–4788 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9