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Modeling the growth of the cultivated seaweed Undaria pinnatifida under climate change scenarios in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

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Abstract

To assess the potential effects of future climate change on Undaria pinnatifida cultivation in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, we developed an individual-based growth model for the U. pinnatifida sporophyte. Initially, we validated the model’s performance using field observation data. The simulation results replicated temporal variations in the total lengths of sporophytes at two stations with differing oceanographic conditions. Subsequently, we conducted numerical simulations of sporophyte growth in the Seto Inland Sea during the 1990s and projected outcomes for the 2090s under four emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The majority of areas exhibited decreased sporophyte growth in the 2090s compared to the 1990s, except for the eastern area under the RCP 2.6 scenario. This decline was attributed to delayed cultivation start times associated with ocean warming and reduced dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations. Interestingly, the impacts of ocean warming on U. pinnatifida cultivation were not uniformly negative. In addition to adverse effects, there were positive effects that accelerated growth rates in low-temperature winter areas. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the balance between positive and negative impacts varied geographically; moreover, the contrasts were enhanced with higher RCP scenarios. Simulations for climate change adaptation using a high-temperature tolerant cultivar indicated that yield losses could be mitigated, even under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Despite uncertainties in the simulation results, such as future management of nutrient loads and herbivore feeding damages, our projections underscore the potential sustainability and future viability of U. pinnatifida aquaculture in the Seto Inland Sea.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Drs. Norio Tanada, Masakazu Hori, and Hideaki Kidokoro for helpful and constructive comments.

Funding

This study was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20S11809) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.

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Author notes

  1. Shoichi Takenaka

    Present address: Biodiversity Center, Ehime Prefectural Institute of Public Health and Environmental Science, Toon, Ehime, 791-0211, Japan

  2. Toshiharu Tamura

    Present address: Fisheries Department, Chuyo Regional Office Ehime Prefecture, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8502, Japan

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hatsukaichi Field Station, Fisheries Technology Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima, 739-0452, Japan

    Goh Onitsuka & Hiromori Shimabukuro

  2. Nagasaki Field Station, Fisheries Technology Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency Nagasaki, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan

    Goro Yoshida

  3. Ehime Research Institute of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Fisheries Research Center, Uwajima, Ehime, 798-0104, Japan

    Shoichi Takenaka & Toshiharu Tamura

  4. Shiogama Field Station, Fisheries Stock Assessment Center, Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan

    Shigeho Kakehi

  5. Yokohama Field Station, Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan

    Takashi Setou

  6. Center for Marine Environmental Study, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan

    **nyu Guo

  7. Regional Environment Conservation Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan

    Hironori Higashi

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Contributions

G. Onitsuka: Designing the research, develo** and simulating the sporophyte growth model, writing the original draft and editing the manuscript. G. Yoshida: Designing the research, conducting the field experiments, reviewing and editing the manuscript. H. Shimabukuro, S. Takenaka, T. Tamura: Conducting the field experiments, reviewing and editing the manuscript. S. Kakehi: Develo** the sporophyte growth model, reviewing and editing the manuscript. T. Setou, X. Guo, H. Higashi: Preparing the environmental data set obtained from the hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and the tidal model, reviewing and editing the manuscript. All authors approved the manuscript for submission.

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Correspondence to Goh Onitsuka.

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Onitsuka, G., Yoshida, G., Shimabukuro, H. et al. Modeling the growth of the cultivated seaweed Undaria pinnatifida under climate change scenarios in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan. J Appl Phycol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10811-024-03291-1

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