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Research on the evolution of sustainable development of declining coal city using system dynamics model

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Abstract

China has numerous declining coal cities, and their sustainable development is lagging due to resource exhaustion, economic recession, and environmental destruction. In order to overcome these problems associated with scientifically selecting the development mode, this study designed the evaluation system including four subsystems (resource, environment, society and economy). Then the system dynamics (SD) model of sustainable development was built by analyzing the interaction between factors of four subsystems. Huaibei city was chosen as a case study to evaluate and simulate the variation trend of its sustainable development level via the SD model. Four alternative scenarios: current scenario, society and economy scenario, environment scenario and coordinated scenario were presented. The simulation results demonstrated that: (1). Sustainable development level improved in all scenarios. (2). The society and economy scenario played a more significant role in promoting sustainable development. Based on the results and analysis, we recommend that Huaibei City should implement water resources conservation, and concentrate on promoting economic transformation to achieve socio-economic stability and rapid development. This study integrates the quantitative evaluation of sustainable development with SD model based on the comprehensive perspective. The research results provide theoretical reference for the systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the sustainable development level, as well as the scientific selection of a development mode for declining coal cities.

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Funding

This work is supported by the following programs: 1.  Scientific Research Project of Universities of Anhui Province in 2022 (Philosophy and Social Science) with the tiele "Dynamic evaluation and spatial effect analysis of eco-environmental quality of resource-based cities of Anhui Province from the perspective of regional integration".  2. Talent introduction scientific research start-up fund of Anhui University of Science and Technology (No.2022yjrc16).

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  1. College of Economy and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, No.168, Taifeng Street, Huainan, 232001, Anhui, China

    Keyu Bao, Gang He & Yanna Zhu

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  1. Keyu Bao
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  2. Gang He
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Correspondence to Keyu Bao.

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Bao, K., He, G. & Zhu, Y. Research on the evolution of sustainable development of declining coal city using system dynamics model. GeoJournal 88, 2691–2703 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10770-w

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