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Modeling and analysis of Lily gold mine disasters using geoinformatics

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Abstract

On February 05 2016, a significant and unfortunate series of mine disasters occurred at the Lily gold mine in South Africa, where 79 mineworkers were trapped under a huge rock and soil mass. In this paper, two separate geographical information system based models are proposed; one for surface and one for subsurface mine disasters. The multi-temporal (2004–2017) high-resolution pre and post-disaster satellite images were analyzed to assess the magnitude and spatial extent of the surface disaster. The explicit modeling technique was applied for mine subsidence using the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion under gravitational acceleration. For surface disaster, the weighted overlay model was applied by assigning weights to hydrological (rainfall, flow direction, accumulation, and density); geological (geology and lineaments) and geomorphological (slope, aspect, and curvature) causative factors. The mine subsidence modeling results showed a subsidence zone of 55 × 24 × 71 m due to a failure of a crown pillar, whereas, in reality, it was 60 × 30 × 80 m. The deformation results showed that the lamp room wherein the miners were trapped could have been displaced somewhere at or below level 5 but above level 6 towards the southwest direction. The output of surface disaster modeling was also satisfactory and reliable as the actual two slope failures, i.e. the western and southern landslides of the Lily gold mine, located in extreme risk zones as predicted by the model. The results of this study can be useful for future mine planning and the environmental improvements at the Lily gold mine.

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Acknowledgements

The work presented here is done under a Ph.D. research study in the School of Mining Engineering at the University of the Witwatersrand. The authors would like to acknowledge the administrative and financial support provided by the School of Advanced Geomechanical Engineering (SAGE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Risalpur Campus, Pakistan, and the School of Mining Engineering at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa to conduct this research. The authors are also grateful to Mr. Phil, a research scholar at Dalhousie University Canada for his kind help in setting up the subsidence modeling.

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  1. School of Mining Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Muhammad Ahsan Mahboob & Bekir Genc

  2. School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Turgay Celik

  3. School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China

    Turgay Celik

  4. School of Advanced Geomechanical Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Risalpur Campus, Risalpur, Pakistan

    Sarfraz Ali & Iqra Atif

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Mahboob, M.A., Genc, B., Celik, T. et al. Modeling and analysis of Lily gold mine disasters using geoinformatics. GeoJournal 85, 837–862 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-09995-z

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