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A development of strategies to be used to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in the agricultural sector

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Abstract

The increasing global population raises the demand for food, resulting in expanded trade of agricultural commodities and greater energy consumption, ultimately leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions. For sustainable environmental management in agricultural development, it is essential to know the exact quantitative relationship between four critical factors: agricultural GDP, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural trade, and greenhouse gas emissions. This study, conducted from 1970 to 2019 in Germany, delves into the intricate dynamics between agricultural GDP, agriculture energy consumption, agriculture trade, urbanization, and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple unit root tests are conducted to assess data stationarity, followed by applying linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. This study examines the impact of energy consumption and trade on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and NARDL models. The analysis shows significant relationships between energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In the ARDL framework, energy consumption has a statistically significant negative effect on greenhouse gas emissions, with coefficient estimates of −0.06. While in the NARDL framework energy dynamics show mixed effects and no statistically significant effects are observed, trade shows a significant negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions in the long run. Specifically, the estimated coefficient for trade is −0.27, indicating a significant negative impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative insights into the dynamics of agricultural trade provide important guidelines for sustainable agricultural development and environmental protection strategies. These results provide a solid foundation for evidence-based policy making and serve as a valuable resource for stakeholders, policymakers and the scientific community.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would also like to extend gratitude to anonymous reviewers for providing helpful suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper.

Funding

Project Supported by Society of Social Sciences of Fujian Province (project number: FJ2021B018). There is no funding for this research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, People’s Republic of China

    Amogh Ghimire & Sajjad Ali

  2. National Research and Innovation Centre, Lalitpur, 44700, Nepal

    Amogh Ghimire

  3. College of Economics and Management, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China

    Feiting Lin

  4. School of Economics and Management, Minjiang University, Fuzhou, 350108, China

    Feiting Lin

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  1. Amogh Ghimire
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Correspondence to Sajjad Ali.

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Ghimire, A., Ali, S. & Lin, F. A development of strategies to be used to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in the agricultural sector. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04996-6

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