Abstract
Combined simulation-optimization modeling is an essential tool for coastal groundwater management. However, determining the appropriate simulation-optimization approach for specific seawater intrusion problems remains a significant challenge, especially for the real-world conditions associated with management of complex groundwater systems, competing management objectives, and global concerns of future climate change. In this study, a linked multi-objective simulation-optimization framework, the MOSWTGA (multi-objective optimal code, coupling SEAWAT and an improved genetic algorithm), was applied to a coastal groundwater system in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City in northern China. The system has fractured karst aquifers and is modelled for the next 20 years (from 2010) under the moderate greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) in the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) and MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) climate modes derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The MOSWTGA was developed by integrating the density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport code SEAWAT with a genetic algorithm improved by adding the Pareto-dominated ranking module, Pareto solution set filter, and fitness sharing procedure. A set of near Pareto-optimal solutions of the trade-off between the maximum of the total pum** rate and the minimum of the extent of seawater intrusion was obtained. The study tried to provide a theoretical basis for real-world groundwater management under the given conditions.
Résumé
Le modèle combinant simulation-optimisation est un outil essentiel pour la gestion des eaux souterraines côtières. Cependant, la détermination de l’approche de simulation-optimisation appropriée pour adresser les problèmes spécifiques d’intrusion d’eau de mer reste un défi important, particulièrement dans les conditions du monde réel quand elles sont associées à une gestion des systèmes complexes d’eau souterraine, à des objectifs de gestion concurrents et aux préoccupations mondiales vis -à-vis du changement climatique futur. Dans la présente étude, un cadre de simulation-optimisation multi-objectifs associé, le MOSWTGA (code multi-objectif optimal, couplant SEAWAT et un algorithme génétique amélioré), a été appliqué au système d’eau souterraine côtier, dans le district de Zhoushuizi de la Ville de Dalian en Chine du Nord. Le système comporte des aquifères karstiques fracturés et est modélisé pour les 20 prochaines années (à partir de 2010) considérant le scénario RCP4.5 de concentration modérée des gaz à effet de serre (cheminements représentatifs de la concentration) selon les modes climatiques du CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) et du MORIC (Modèle de Recherche Iterdisciplinaire sur le Climat) provenant de la Phase 5 du Projet d’Intercomparaison de Modèle Couplé (CMIP5). Le MOSWTGA a été développé en couplant le code SEAWAT d’écoulement des eaux souterraines en fonction de la densité et le transport de solutés à un algorithme génétique amélioré par l’adjonction d’un module de classement contrôlé de type Pareto, d’un filtre de l’ensemble des solutions de Pareto et d’une procédure de partage de la conformité. Un ensemble de solutions proches de l’optimum de Pareto pour le compromis entre le maximum du volume de pompage total et le minimum de l’extension de l’intrusion de l’eau de mer a été obtenu. L’étude a tenté de fournir une base théorique pour la gestion de l’eau souterraine dans le monde réel dans des conditions données.
Resumen
El modelado combinado de simulación-optimización es una herramienta esencial para la gestión de las aguas subterráneas costeras. Sin embargo, determinar el enfoque apropiado de simulación-optimización para problemas específicos de intrusión de agua de mar sigue siendo un desafío importante, especialmente para las condiciones del entorno actual asociadas con la gestión de sistemas complejos de agua subterránea, los objetivos de gestión que compiten entre sí y las preocupaciones globales del cambio climático futuro. En este estudio, se aplicó un marco de simulación-optimización multi-objetivo interconectado, el MOSWTGA (código óptimo multi-objetivo, acoplando SEAWAT y un algoritmo genético mejorado), a un sistema costero de aguas subterráneas en el distrito de Zhoushuizi en la ciudad de Dalian en el norte de China. El sistema tiene acuíferos kársticos fracturados y se ha modelado para los próximos 20 años (a partir de 2010) bajo el escenario de concentración moderada de gases de efecto invernadero RCP4.5 (vías de concentración representativas) en los modos climáticos del CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) y del MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) derivados del Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). El MOSWTGA se desarrolló integrando el código de flujo de aguas subterráneas dependiente de la densidad y de transporte de solutos SEAWAT con un algoritmo genético mejorado mediante la adición del módulo de clasificación dominado por Pareto, el filtro del conjunto de soluciones de Pareto y el procedimiento de distribución de la aptitud. Se obtuvo un conjunto de soluciones casi óptimas de Pareto del compromiso entre el máximo de las tasas totales de bombeo y el mínimo de la extensión de la intrusión de agua de mar. El estudio trató de proporcionar una base teórica para la gestión de las aguas subterráneas en el entorno actual.
摘要
模拟-优化模型是沿海地下水管理的重要工具。然而,为特定的海水入侵问题确定合适的模拟-优化方法仍然是一个重大挑战,特别是对于与复杂的地下水系统、冲突的管理目标和全球关注的未来气候变化有关的真实海水入侵案例。本研究将多目标模拟优化程序MOSWTGA(多目标优化程序, 将SEAWAT和改进的遗传算法耦合在一起)应用于大连市周水子区沿海地下水系统管理。该系统为裂隙岩溶含水层系统,并且模拟了未来20年(从2010年开始)在联合模型对比项目第5阶段(CMIP5)的CNRM(法国国家气象中心)和MIROC(跨学科研究气候模型)两种气候模式中等温室气体浓度情景RCP4.5(代表性浓度路径)下的方案。将变密度地下水流及溶质运移模拟程SEAWAT与改进后的遗传算法GA(添加了帕累托排序、帕累托解集过滤器、适应度值共享等模块)相耦合,开发MOSWTGA程序。得到了一系列总抽水量最大与海水入侵程度最小之间的**似帕累托最优解,本研究尝试为给定条件下的真实的地下水多目标管理提供理论依据。
Resumo
A modelagem combinada de simulação-otimização é uma ferramenta essencial para o gerenciamento de águas subterrâneas costeiras. No entanto, determinar a abordagem de otimização de simulação apropriada para problemas específicos de intrusão de água do mar permanece um desafio significativo, especialmente para as condições do mundo real associadas ao gerenciamento de sistemas complexos de água subterrânea, objetivos de gerenciamento concorrentes e preocupações globais de mudanças climáticas futuras. Neste estudo, um arcabouço de otimização de simulação multiobjetivo vinculado, o MOSWTGA (“multi-objective optimal code, coupling SEAWAT and an improved genetic algorithm” - código ótimo multiobjetivo, acoplamento SEAWAT e um algoritmo genético melhorado), foi aplicado a um sistema de águas subterrâneas costeiras no distrito de Zhoushuizi, na cidade de Dalian, no norte da China. O sistema tem aquíferos cársticos fraturados e é modelado para os próximos 20 anos (a partir de 2010) sob o cenário de concentração moderada de gases de efeito estufa RCP4.5 (vias de concentração representativas) no CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) e MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate) modos climáticos derivados do Projeto de Intercomparação de Modelos Acoplados Fase 5 (CMIP5). O MOSWTGA foi desenvolvido integrando o fluxo de água subterrânea dependente da densidade e o código de transporte de soluto SEAWAT com um algoritmo genético aprimorado pela adição do módulo de classificação dominado por Pareto, filtro de conjunto de solução de Pareto e procedimento de compartilhamento de aptidão. Foi obtido um conjunto de soluções quase ótimas de Pareto da compensação entre o máximo das taxas de bombeamento total e o mínimo da extensão da intrusão de água do mar. O estudo tentou fornecer uma base teórica para a gestão de águas subterrâneas no mundo real sob as condições dadas.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are profoundly grateful to the anonymous associate editor and three reviewers, whose constructive and insightful comments helped to improve the manuscript significantly.
Funding
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Key Research Project of China (No. 2016YFC0402800), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51709106 and 40902069), and the Higher Educational Science and Technology Program of Henan Province, China (No. 18A170011).
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Zhao, J., Lin, J., Wu, J. et al. Impact of climate change on multi-objective management of seawater intrusion in coastal karst aquifers in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City, China. Hydrogeol J 29, 2329–2346 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02383-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02383-3