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Precipitation variability and its teleconnection with the global SST and ENSO indices in the food-insecure rural areas of Tigray

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Abstract

The impact of precipitation variability on food production is very significant. For food-insecure rural areas, understanding the nature of precipitation variability and its teleconnection has paramount importance in guiding regional and local-level decisions. In this study, we analyzed the monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation variability and the strength of its teleconnection with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) and El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in the food-insecure rural areas of Tigray region, Ethiopia. The precipitation, SST, and ENSO indices data for the study were used from 1979 to 2019. A summary of descriptive statistics and Mann-Kendall test methods were applied to detect the existence of trends, and Sen’s slope and coefficient of variation are used to analyze the magnitude of the trend and degree of variation in the precipitation pattern. Further, Pearson’s correlation is used to determine the effect of ENSO, and SST variations on the precipitation using the canonical correlation analysis. The results revealed that the precipitation over the three districts is characterized by a distinctive bimodal pattern with limited rains in March–May preceding the main rainy season June–September. The limited amount of precipitation, exacerbated by a higher degree of variability, makes the food production in the three districts more uncertain. Besides, there was a very significant decline in the trend of March–May average precipitation and a significant decline in the trend of the annual average precipitation in Hintalo area. The SST of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and northeast and northwest equatorial Atlantic Ocean was strongly correlated with the April average precipitation of the three districts. Further, SST of the south, west, and southwest of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and west equatorial Pacific Ocean was associated with July–September average precipitation with greater variation in strength among of the three districts. Moreover, July’s average precipitation of the three districts, April’s average precipitation of Atsbi and Eirop, and May’s precipitation of Hintalo are found significantly associated with the ENSO indices of JFM, FMA, MJJ, and MAM. Therefore, the task of achieving food security in the three districts should incorporate the design of informed food production strategies that can adapt to the limited and variable precipitation based on these SST and ENSO indices.

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Data availability

We declare that data and materials will be made available on reasonable request.

Code availability

Code for data cleaning and analysis will be provided once the paper has been conditionally accepted.

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Funding

We declare that we have received 60,000 Birr from Mekelle University for this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environment, Gender and Development Studies, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Tewelde Gebre

  2. College of Dryland Agriculture and Natural Resources, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Zenebe Abraha & Woldegebrial Zeweld

  3. Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Amanuel Zenebe

Authors
  1. Tewelde Gebre
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  2. Zenebe Abraha
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  3. Amanuel Zenebe
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  4. Woldegebrial Zeweld
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Contributions

TG Analyzed data and wrote up the paper

Dr. ZA Contributed to the design of the methodology

Dr. AZ Contributed to the methodology of the paper and its analysis

Dr. WZ Wrote the discussion part and essential literature reviews

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Correspondence to Tewelde Gebre.

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Gebre, T., Abraha, Z., Zenebe, A. et al. Precipitation variability and its teleconnection with the global SST and ENSO indices in the food-insecure rural areas of Tigray. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 1699–1711 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04717-5

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