SpringerLink
Log in

On the simulation of northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Northeast monsoon rainfall (Oct–Dec) over southern peninsular India (NEMR-SP) has the high coefficient of variation (26%) and low predictability. The poor skill of the ensemble models in simulating the interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India is well known. Here, we tried to understand the possible reasons behind the poor skill of CMIP5 (31 models) and CMIP6 (15 model) models in capturing the mean and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India. Varying skills are observed in simulating the climatological mean (1979–2005) rainfall for different CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of NEMR over a broader region (10° S–30° N, 40° E–120° E) is found to be ranging from 0.6 to 0.93 and RMSE is ranging between 1.73 and 3.83 for CMIP5 models, while PCC is ranging from 0.57 to 0.87 and RMSE is ranging from 0.38 to 1.9 for CMIP6 models. The mean rainfall is overestimated over the southwestern Indian Ocean and underestimated over southern peninsular India in both CMIP model ensembles. The warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the easterly wind bias over equatorial Indian Ocean are the other biases observed in the mean climatology of CMIP model ensembles. Around 70% (more than 75%) of the selected models were not able to reproduce the observed positive correlation between Niño3.4 SST and NEMR-SP as well as dipole mode index and NEMR-SP in CMIP5 models (CMIP6 models). El Niño and positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD)–related positive rainfall anomalies over the western Indian Ocean and southern peninsular India are underestimated in both CMIP5 and CMIP6 model ensembles. The El Niño and PIOD–related warm SST anomalies over cold tongue region and associated divergent anomalies over warm pool region are found to be shifted westward in the model ensembles. The southern peninsular India is found to be under the influence of these divergent anomalies in the CMIP models, which is contradictory to the observation. The observed southerly component of wind at 850 hPa over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the upper level (200 hPa) anticyclonic circulation and the convergent anomalies over the western Indian Ocean during El Niño and PIOD are not simulated correctly in the CMIP models. All these biases may contribute to the poor skill in the simulation of teleconnection between NEMR-SP and El Niño as well as NEMR-SP and PIOD.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Germany)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Available.

Code availability

Available.

References

  • Acharya N, Kar SC, Kulkarni MA, Mohanty UC, Sahoo LN (2011) Multimodel ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India. J Earth Syst Sci 120:795–805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, **e P, Janowiak J, Rudolf R, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M, Saeed F, Saeed S et al (2020) Projections of precipitation and temperature over the South Asian countries in CMIP6. Earth Syst Environ 4:297–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, ** El Niño. J Clim 18:302–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Archana N, Acharya N, Ankita S, Mohanty UC, Panda TC (2013) On the predictability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India in general circulation models. Pure Appl Geophys 170:1945–1967

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhanu Kumar OSRU, Naidu CV, Rao SRL (2004) Influence of southern oscillation and SSTs over Niño-3.4 region on the winter monsoon rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh. Proc Indian Acad Sci 113:313–319

    Google Scholar 

  • Bretherton CS, Peters ME, Back LE (2004) Relationships between water vapor path and precipitation over the tropical Oceans. J Clim 17:1517–1528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De US, Mukhopadhay RK (1999) The effect of ENSO/Anti ENSO on northeast monsoon rainfall. Mausam 50:343–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dhar ON, Rakhecha PR (1983) Forecasting northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, India. Mon Weather Rev 111:109–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Du Y, **e SP (2008) Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08712. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033631

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fathrio I, Iizuka S, Manda A, Kodama Y, Ishida S, Moteki Q, Yamada H, Tachibana Y (2017) Assessment of western Indian Ocean SST bias of CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res Oceans 122:3123–3140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng J, Wang L, Chen W, Fong SK, Leong KC (2010) Different impacts of two types of Pacific Ocean warming on Southeast Asian rainfall during boreal winter. J Geophys Res Atmos 115(24):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil, S, Gadgil, S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Economic and Political Weekly, XLI, 4887–4895

  • Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girishkumar MS, Thanga Prakash VP, Ravichandran M (2015) Influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October-December. ClimDyn 44:3469–3479

    Google Scholar 

  • Gusain A, Ghosh S, Karmakar S (2020) Added value of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Atmosph Res 232:104680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Arkin PA, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Janowiak J, McNab A, Rudolf B, Schneider U (1997) The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:5–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konda G, Vissa NK (2022) Evaluation of CMIP6 models for simulations of surplus/deficit summer monsoon conditions over India. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06367-1

  • Kripalani RH, Kumar P (2004) Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over south peninsular India vis-a-vis the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Int J Climatol 24:1267–1282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Rupa Kumar K, Rajeevan M, Sahai AK (2007) On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia. ClimDyn 28:649–660

    Google Scholar 

  • Li JP, Feng J (2017) Tropical large-scale atmospheric interaction in association with subtropical aridity trend. In: Fu CB, Mao HT (eds) Aridity trend in Northern China. World Scientific, Singapore

  • Li G, **e SP (2012) Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multimodel ensembles. Geophys Res Lett 39:L22703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li G, Du Y, Xu H, Ren B (2015) An intermodel approach to identify the source of excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue in CMIP5 models and uncertainty in observational datasets. J Clim 28:7630–7640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen RS, Nigam S (1987) On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2418–2436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menon A, Levermann A, Schewe J, Lehmann K, Frieler K (2013) Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models. Earth Sys Dynam 4:287–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M (2007) The years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J Clim 20:2872–2880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nageswara Rao G (1999) Variations of the SO relationship with summer and winter monsoon rainfall over India: 1872–1993. J Climate 12:3486–3495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neelin JD, Peters O, Hales K (2009) The transition to strong convection. J Atmos Sci 66:2367–2384. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS2962.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien JJ, Hurlburt HE (1974) An equatorial jet in the Indian Ocean: theory. Science 184:1075–1077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasanna K, Singh P, Chowdary J, Naidu C, Parekh A, Gnanaseelan C, Dandi R (2019) Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over the southern peninsular India associated with multiyear La Niña events. Clim Dyn 53(9–10):6265–6291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasanna K, Chowdary JS, Naidu CV, Gnanaseelan C, Parekh A (2020) Diversity in ENSO remote connection to northeast monsoon rainfall in observations and CMIP5 models. Theor Appl Climatol 141:827–8394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Preethi B, Mujumdar M, Prabhu A, Kripalani RH (2017) Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models. Asia-Pacific J Atm Sci 53:305–325. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-017-0034-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Preethi B, Ramya R, Patwardhan SK, Mujumdar M, Kripalani RH (2019) Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models. Clim Dyn 53:1937–1962. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04752-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raj YEA (1998) A scheme for advance prediction of northeast monsoon rainfall of Tamil Nadu. Mausam 49:247–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raj YEA, Sen PN, Jamadar SM (1993) Outlook on northeast monsoon rainfall of Tamil Nadu. Mausam 44:19–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raj YEA, Suresh R, Sankaran PV, Amudha B (2004) Seasonal variation of 200 hPa upper tropospheric features over India in relation to performance of Indian southwest and northeast monsoons. Mausam 55:269–280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Bhate J, Niranjan Kumar K, Sreekala PP (2012) Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction. Meteorol Appl 19(2):226–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran K, Surendran S, Varghese SJ, Sathyanath A (2021) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, interannual variability and teleconnections: evaluation of CMIP6 models. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06027-w

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajiv KC, Jaideep J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramu DA, Chowdary JS, Ramakrishna SSVS, Kumar OSRUB (2018) Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models. Theor Appl Climatol 132:465–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao RR, Sivakumar R (2000) Seasonal variability of near-surface thermal structure and heat budget of the mixed layer of the tropical Indian Ocean from a new global Ocean temperature climatology. J Geophys Res 105:C1995–C1015

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao Krishna PR, Jganathan P (1953) A study of the northeast monsoon rainfall of Tamilnadu. Indian J Meteor Geophys 4:22–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Raymond DJ (2000) Thermodynamic control of tropical rainfall. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 126:889–898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodwell MJ (2005) Monsoon internal dynamics. In: The global monsoon system: research and forecast. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp 326–341

  • Roy I, Tedeschi R, Collins M (2019) ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon in observations and models. Int J Climatol 37(4):1794–1813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, Dhakate AR, Salunke K, Goswami BN (2015) Why ensemble mean projection of south Asian monsoon rainfall by CMIP5 models is not reliable? Clim Dyn 45:161–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2269-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha SK, Hazra A, Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS, Sujith K, Rai A, Goswami BN (2019) Unraveling the mystery of Indian summer monsoon prediction: improved estimate of predictability limit. J Geophys Res 124:1962–1974. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha SK, Konwar M, Pokhrel S, Hazra A, Chaudhari HS, Rai A (2021) Interplay between subseasonal rainfall and global predictors in modulating interannual to multidecadal predictability of the ISMR. Geophys Res Lett 48:2020GL091458. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santoso A, Mcphaden MJ, Cai W (2017) The defining characteristics of ENSO extremes and the strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Rev Geophys 55:1079–1129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider EK, Lindzen RS (1977) Axially symmetric steady state models of the basic state for in-stability and climate studies Part I Linear calculations. J Atmos Sci 34(263):279

    Google Scholar 

  • Schott FA, McCreary JP (2001) The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean. Prog Oceanogr 51:1–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schott FA, **e SP, McCreary J (2009) Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev Geophys 47:RG1002. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sengupta A, Sumant N (2019) The northeast winter monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia: evolution, interannual variability, and model simulations. J Climate 32:231–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shin DB, Kim JH, Park HJ (2011) Agreement between monthly precipitation estimates from TRMM satellite, NCEP reanalysis and merged gauge-satellite analysis. J Geophys Res 116:D16105. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siew JH, Tangang FT, Juneng L (2014) Evaluation of CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and projection of the Southeast Asian winter monsoon in the 21st century. Int J Climatol 34:2872–2884

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh N, Sontakke NA (1999) On the variability and prediction of post monsoon season rainfall over India. Int J Climatol 19:309–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sreekala PP, Rao SV, Rajeevan M (2012) Northeast monsoon rainfall activity over south peninsular India and its teleconnections. Theor Appl Climatol 108:73–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sreekala PP, Rao SV, Rajeevan K, Arunachalam MS (2018) Combined effect of MJO ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. Clim Dyn 51:3865–3882. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4117-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suppiah R (1996) Spatial and temporal variations in the relationship between southern oscillation phenomenon and the rainfall of Sri Lanka. Int J Climatol 16:1391–1407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suppiah R (1997) Extremes of southern oscillation phenomenon and the rainfall of Sri Lanka. Int J Climatol 17:87–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13(9):1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Lee J-Y, **ang B (2015) Asian summer monsoon rainfall predictability: a predictable mode analysis. ClimDyn 44:61–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Kimoto M, ** FF (2002) Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone during El Niño. Geophys Res Lett 29:1478. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • **e P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA, Adler RF, Gruber A, Ferraro R, Huffman GJ, Curtis S (2003) GPCP pentad precipitation analyses: an experimental dataset based on gauge observations and satellite estimates. J Climate 16:2197–2214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadav RK (2012) Why is ENSO influencing Indian northeast monsoon in the recent decades? Int J Climatol 32:2163–2180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadav RK (2013) Emerging role of Indian Ocean on Indian Northeast monsoon. ClimDyn 41:105–116

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the ’86/87 and ’91/92 events. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74(1):49–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng Y, Lin JL, Shinoda T (2012) The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: upper ocean heat budget and feedback analysis. J Geophys Res 117:C05024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007746

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zubair L, Ropelewski CF (2006) The strengthening relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka and southern India. J Clim 19:1567–1575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zubair L, Rao SA, Yamagata T (2003) Modulation of Sri Lankan Maha rainfall by the Indian Ocean dipole. Geophys Res Lett 30(2):35-1–35-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Dr. M. Rajeevan and K. Rajeevan for their valuable suggestions. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on the coupled modelling which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output.

Funding

One of the authors (P. P. Sreekala) is supported financially by UGC through DSKPDF.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin-16, Kerala, Cochin, India

    P. P. Sreekala & C. A. Babu

  2. Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, India

    S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao

Authors
  1. P. P. Sreekala
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. C. A. Babu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The first author performed the analysis and writing part. Both second and third authors actively participated in the research discussions.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. P. Sreekala.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sreekala, P.P., Babu, C.A. & Rao, S.V.B. On the simulation of northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 969–986 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04194-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04194-2

Search

Navigation