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Annual and seasonal rainfall trend analysis using gridded dataset in the Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia

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Abstract

Long-term rainfall trends analysis under climate change, particularly in develo** countries where rainfed agriculture is substantial, is vigorous to evaluate rainfall variability brought changes and propose possible adaptation measures. Hence, the study was designed to evaluate annual and seasonal long-term trends in rainfall in Wabe Shebele River Basin in Ethiopia using gridded monthly precipitation data derived from Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 4.1) with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1920 to 2019 years. The time series trend of annual and seasonal rainfall was detected by employing innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results were compared with the most widely used Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator method. The basin was sub-divided into ten sub-basins for easy analysis. The MK test result revealed a non-significant decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall trends that occurred in most sub-basins and the entire basin. The results of the ITA method showed that the scattered plot was accumulated on the 1:1 (45°) straight line, indicating no trend for most of the sub-basins. The trends vary within sub-basins and rainfall magnitude while the decreasing and increasing trends were within ± 10%. The finding indicates that statistics for Φ are non-uniform spatial and temporal and show no significant trends at a 5% significant level in the most sub-basins. The comparison of the three selected methods indicates that ITA performs better in trend investigation. Hence, the ITA method provides results in graphical form, which makes a straightforward interpretation of trends based on rainfall intensity. Rainfall trends investigation is vital for agricultural development where combining the possible adaptation measures to climate change is vigorous during water resources planning and development for agriculture. Accordingly, the strategic plan is recommended for the practical activity of agriculture by considering the decline and variability of rainfall patterns in the sub-basins particularly and in the basin generally.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available, except for observed data collected from Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency. The authors have no authority to openly distribute those observed data.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully thank secondary data provider Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency (NMSA) for providing meteorological data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Megersa Adugna Gurara

  2. School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Abebe Debele Tolche

  3. Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Nura Boru Jilo & Asfaw Kebede Kassa

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  1. Megersa Adugna Gurara
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Contributions

Conceptualization: Megersa Adugna Gurara, Nura Boru Jilo, Abebe Debele Tolche, and Asfaw Kebede Kassa; methodology: Megersa Adugna Gurara and Nura Boru Jilo; validation and formal analysis: Megersa Adugna Gurara; investigation: Megersa Adugna Gurara, Nura Boru Jilo, and Abebe Debele Tolche; writing—original draft preparation: Megersa Adugna Gurara; writing—review and editing: Megersa Adugna Gurara, Nura Boru Jilo, Abebe Debele Tolche, and Asfaw Kebede Kassa; supervision: Asfaw Kebede Kassa; all authors have read and agreed to the submitted version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Megersa Adugna Gurara.

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Gurara, M.A., Tolche, A.D., Jilo, N.B. et al. Annual and seasonal rainfall trend analysis using gridded dataset in the Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 263–281 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04164-8

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