Abstract
Meteorological drought is among the key climate-related risks affecting Ethiopia. It indicates a shortage of precipitation over a long period, usually for a season or a year. This study uses copula theory to analyze meteorological drought in the upper Tekeze river basin, Northern part of Ethiopia. Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory provides a promising opportunity to deal with such risks in advance and to improve sectoral resilience. In this study, long-year (1982–2020) rainfall and soil moisture data were used to analyze standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSI), respectively. The best-fit copula family was selected to construct the joint probability distribution (JPD) of SPI and SSI. Multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales was analyzed using the MSDI toolbox. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) statistical test was used for trend detection. We found that the newly developed MSDI captures all drought events during the observation period compared with SPI and SSI. MSDI particularly showed the most recent drought of 2015, with the drought duration and severity of 4 months and 6.4, respectively, and its joint return period was 5.24 years. The M–K and Sen’s Slope estimator statistical tests indicated a positive trend for all drought timescales in the basin. The spatial extent of MSDI shows most frequently extreme drought occurred in the basin. Meteorological drought analysis using multiple indices is better than a single drought index. This approach can better inform adaptation policies and interventions that are aimed at monitoring and reducing drought risk in the basin and beyond.
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The research presented was financially supported by Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University (General Junior Research Project). We acknowledge the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia for providing the ground rainfall data of our study area free of charge.
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This work was supported by Institute of Climate and Society (ICS), Mekelle University [grant number RDPDO/MU/CBE/GeneralJunior/050/13, 2021].
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All authors collaborated in the research presented in this publication by making the following contributions: conceptualization and model develo**, BY, HS, AG; lead data collection and data analysis, BY, HS, AG, ZG, and MT; writing oral draft preparation, BY; writing—review and-& editing, BY, HS, AG, and ZG.
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Menna, B.Y., Mesfin, H.S., Gebrekidan, A.G. et al. Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory for the case of upper Tekeze river basin, Northern Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 621–638 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04061-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04061-0