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Rainfall trends over a North Atlantic small island in the period 1937/1938–2016/2017 and an early climate teleconnection

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Abstract

Changes in the rainfall amounts in a small island in the North Atlantic Ocean—Madeira Island—were analysed based on complete daily rainfall series aggregated into 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month rainfall and annual maximum rainfalls of 41 rain gauges (1937/1938–2016/2017). The gaps of the daily rainfall data were filled in by the multivariate imputation by chained equations whose performance was evaluated. The Mann-Kendall test coupled with Sen’s slope estimator was applied to detect and quantify trends. The sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to identify abrupt changes in trends. Results show a widespread downward trend in seasonal and annual rainfall, with the highest values in Madeira’s central region. A strong association between the downward rainfall trends and the upward trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was found. New insights into the understanding of the rainfall patterns in small island environments in the North Atlantic were produced.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I. P. (IPMA, I. P.) for the daily rainfall data provided for this research work.

Data availability statement

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available on reasonable request from the corresponding author (Espinosa, L.A.).

Funding

The work of the first author is funded by The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), grant no. PD/BD/128509/2017.

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  1. Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Lisbon, Portugal

    Luis Angel Espinosa

  2. Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Lisbon, Portugal

    Maria Manuela Portela

  3. Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Lisbon, Portugal

    Rui Rodrigues

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Contributions

Conceptualisation: L.A.E., M.M.P.; methodology: L.A.E., M.M.P.; software: L.A.E.; validation: L.A.E.; formal analysis: L.A.E.; investigation: L.A.E.; resources: L.A.E., M.M.P., R.R.; data curation: L.A.E.; writing–original draft preparation: L.A.E., M.M.P.; writing–review and editing: L.A.E., M.M.P., R.R.; visualisation: L.A.E.; supervision: M.M.P, R.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. To the Theoretical and Applied Climatology journal editorial team, all authors listed immediately below have participated in conception and design or analysis and interpretation of the data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content and approval of the final revised version.

1. Luis Angel Espinosa Villalpando (corresponding author)

2. Maria Manuela Portela

3. Rui Raposo Rodrigues

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Correspondence to Luis Angel Espinosa.

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Espinosa, L.A., Portela, M.M. & Rodrigues, R. Rainfall trends over a North Atlantic small island in the period 1937/1938–2016/2017 and an early climate teleconnection. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 469–491 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03547-7

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