Contrasting physical mechanisms linking stratospheric polar vortex stretching events to cold Eurasia between autumn and late winter

Abstract

The weak stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is usually linked to Northern Hemisphere cold spells. Based on the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis and WACCM model experiments, we use K-means cluster analysis to extract the zonally asymmetric pattern of October-February stratospheric variability, which involves a stretched SPV and hence leads to cold surges in Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes. There are contrasting effects and mechanisms between autumn (October–November) and late winter (February) SPV stretching events. In October, anomalies in the stratospheric circulation affect the near-surface 16–20 days after the weakening of the SPV. This contributes to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) towards its negative phase, leading to cold anomalies over northern Eurasia. Together with the weakening of planetary wave-1 during days 31–40, the second stratosphere–troposphere coupling strengthens the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, resulting in Eurasian high-latitude cooling. For November, the suppressed upward propagation of wave-1 during days 11–15 is conducive to anomalous high pressure over northern Europe and thereby European cooling through a stratospheric pathway, while for days 21–30, the weakening of propagating wave-2 over Eastern Europe intensifies the mid-latitude wave train through a tropospheric pathway, favorable for cold temperatures in mid-latitude East Asia. In contrast, the late winter SPV stretching events and the attendant Eurasian coldness during 11–25 days are likely to have been simultaneously driven by the long-lived European high anomaly, which enhanced the upward-propagating tropospheric waves into the stratosphere and thus favored SPV stretching. It indicates that the tropospheric pathway, rather than the stratospheric pathway, plays a dominant role in cold Eurasia following February SPV stretching events.